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Monday, May 19, 2008

Richard Wiseman, professor of psychology at the University of Hertfordshire in Great Britain

Richard Wiseman, professor of psychology at the University of Hertfordshire in Great Britain, decided to test if this was true. He discusses the experiment and its findings in the book, Quirkology - The Curious Science of Everyday Life.
“The experiment involved three participants—a financial astrologer, an experienced city analyst and a young child. At the start of the test, we gave them a notional 5,000 pounds each, and asked them to invest the money as they thought best in the stock market. Then over the course of a week, we tracked their choices,” writes Wiseman.

The young child was a girl named Tia. She and the other two professionals were to invest their notional cash in any of the one hundred largest companies in the UK.

Tia’s choice was to be totally random. To ensure that, the author had the names of the hundred companies written on chits of paper and threw the papers high into the air so Tia could randomly grab four of them as they fluttered to the ground. Tia’s notional investments went into Bank of Scotland, Diageo, Old Mutual and Sainsbury.

The two experts also made their picks. “Our financial astrologer carefully examined the formation date of the companies, and promptly plumped for a variety of different sectors, including communication and technology-based stocks (Vodafone, Emap, Baltimore Tech, and Pearson).
read on.. source below.
clipped from sify.com
Of astrologers, experts and random stock picks

Mumbai: What is it that makes one company more successful than others in the same line of business? Financial astrologers would have us believe the date of formation of a company affects its future financial performance, for good or bad.

Tia’s choice was to be totally random. To ensure that, the author had the names of the hundred companies written on chits of paper and threw the papers high into the air so Tia could randomly grab four of them as they fluttered to the ground. Tia’s notional investments went into Bank of Scotland, Diageo, Old Mutual and Sainsbury.

Our investor drew on his seven years of extensive experience, and decided to invest within the communications industry (Vodafone, Marconi, Cable and Wireless, and Prudential).”

Understandably, the experts are not really the experts they are made out to be.

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