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Sunday, May 18, 2008

market discounts 3 and half yr high inflation

One major good news is that price of rice has been on the slump for the past five days. Last week, rice was ruling high as India and Vietnam cut down exports, exerting global pressure on the price. But this week, China and Japan eased the worries after announcing that they would export. What sweetened the news further was when Commerce Secretary G.K. Pillai announced that rice production in the year ending June might reach a record 95.68 million tons. India is set to harvest a bumper crop this year! What this also means that soon India might be able to ease the ban on rice exports.



Another piece of good news is that the Meteorological Department has stated that monsoons would be normal and would be hitting Kerala by May 29th. India might be considered an IT country worldwide but, clearly, at the core, agriculture rules and we continue to be at the mercy of the rain Gods, irrespective of the progress made and technological advances achieved.

The markets, for now, have discounted the news of inflation. The market is now actually rallying on news that maybe the Finance Minister would soon review the restrictions imposed on participatory notes (P-notes). This assumption is based on the fact that FIIs have been major sellers in 2008. And perturbed by that, the Finance Ministry has even asked SEBI to find out whether restrictions imposed on the participatory notes was causing investments to slowdown. The market has got a whiff of this news and now all expectations are set to ride high on this.
MARKET DISCOUNTS 3 ½ YEAR HIGH INFLATION
Its Friday and its inflation rate day. Never have the inflation figures been watched with such avid interest by the marketmen. But the rising inflation rates have undoubtedly become a source of major concern for all and the moment there is any major rise reported in the inflation rates, the stock markets react.
The wholesale price index rose to 7.83% in the week ended May 3 from a year earlier, after gaining 7.61% in the previous week. This was the highest in 3 1/2 years, yet the stock markets did not exactly come toppling down, it continued to trade in the positive. Well, the market had expected the inflation figures to be in the range of 8%, so naturally, when rates did not touch the 8% mark, the markets decided to not worry for now. But there is no doubt that the inflation rate presently is tantalizing close to the 8% mark.
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