By Ruma Dubey
Expect the unexpected is fine but not when it is unpleasant. Inflation based on the wholesale price index (WPI) for the week ended June 7, touched the double digit mark at a whopping 11.05%, a 13-year high. This is sharply up from the 8.75%, which was reported last week. The Govt when it had initiated the fuel price hike on 4th June itself, it was a given conclusion that inflation in the coming weeks would surely be above 10%. And this double digit inflation is a direct consequence of the rise in the fuel price. Infact inflation was mainly on account of a 7.8% rise in fuel, power and lubricants prices and a 14% surge in ATF prices.
The fuel price was up due to higher prices of petrol (11%), light diesel oil (21%), LPG (20%), naphtha (17%), furnace oil (15%), aviation turbine fuel (14%), high speed diesel oil (10%) and bitumen (7%).
Non-food articles were up by 1.04% while food articles were down by 1.1%. Surprisingly, the figures indicate that the primary articles prices of condiments and marine fish rose while the prices of fruits and vegetables declined.
The moment the news was out, the markets fell like ninepins. The BSE was down 176 points at 12 noon and when the inflation figures came, by 12.05, the BSE slid immediately and by 12.15 was trading 312 points lower and slipped below the psychological mark of 15,000. Till 12 noon, the market had managed to hold its steed for some time as there was wide spread expectation that the actual inflation would be below the double digit figure and marketmen even started talking of a smart recovery if inflation came below 10%. So just when the market had made up its mind that inflation would hover anywhere around 9.75% to 9.95%, the 11.05% figure, which was just not expected, led to a bout of immediate panic. Right now, the mood on Dalal Street is that of complete despondency and marketmen seem directionless. The news has spread a pall of gloom all over. Banking stocks have been beaten to pulp and so have realty and oil and gas sector stocks. Over 79% of the stocks are currently on a decline and this indicates a highly negative trend emerging in the markets.
There is no doubt that this high inflation rate would now put India on the radar of “closely watched” for the next few months. This pain of inflation is expected to remain for some time now. The consensus is that RBI would have no option but to once again hike the repo rates and this time around it is expected to be of another 25 basis points. Once that happens, surely banks will be left with no option but to hike the interest rates and this will in turn stoke some more inflation. Over the long run, once consumption comes down and prices settle a bit, then maybe, the pain will ease a bit. But in the immediate future, there is not much to cheer about, atleast in the first half of the current fiscal.
Does this mean that FIIs would now pack their bags and leave? Not likely to happen. Inflation is today a global phenomenon and world over, the rising crude oil prices has unleashed soaring prices, which is expected to lead to a fall in economic growth rates due to overall fall in consumption. India too is facing the pain, which the world at large is facing. But yes, what the FIIs would now closely watch is the way in which the Indian Govt would handle this double digit inflation and that to a large extent would be the decisive factor in the coming weeks. The double digit inflation figure is the last thing that the Govt needed right now, especially when it is going to the polls by early next year. The soaring prices would nullify all the votes, which the Govt had hoped to cash-in on account of the debt waiver given to the farmers.
What is also to be factored in is that the prices that we see today are administered prices; so what would be the actual inflation if the Govt had allowed the market forces to decide? Undoubtedly, times are bad in the coming days for the market and more so for the ruling government.
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